The Reality of New Product Development: Embracing The Unknowns

Why Product Development Never Goes As Planned 

I have a confession to make: I am far from perfect, and our company is far from perfect. That’s a hard thing to admit, but it’s the truth. And guess what? We’re no different from any other company in that respect. In new product development and engineering, there are always a large number of unknowns. 

When I was earning my MBA, I had a professor who referred to these as “known unknowns.” They’re the things we know exist but don’t yet understand. Unfortunately, these exist in every product development project. 

This is the number one argument for prototyping and why I appreciate Eric Ries’ book, The Lean Startup. Ries coined the term minimum viable product (MVP) to emphasize that we don’t know all the variables that can affect a project. Some things will go right, some will go wrong, and some will be indifferent—but no matter how much we plan, surprises always emerge. 

Why Deadlines and Budgets Are Always Moving Targets 

In my 20+ years of developing products, I have rarely seen a project finish on time. Early in my career, this was frustrating. I would argue, push back, and try to force things to stay on track. But over time, I’ve realized that delays and setbacks are inevitable in product development. This doesn’t mean they’re acceptable, but they happen in every industry, every company, every project—every time. 

We all tend to plan for the best-case scenario—as if the product will work perfectly the first time. The reality? It never does. 

I’ve worked on both simple and complex projects, and the complexity rarely makes a difference in whether issues arise. Sure, with simpler projects, recovery may be faster, but when you’re creating something new, there are simply too many unknowns to account for. 

Look at great inventors and innovators throughout history: 

• Thomas Edison failed 10,000 times before he got the light bulb right. 
• Steve Jobs had multiple project delays with the Lisa 2 and the Macintosh—they were game-changing, but they weren’t on time or within budget. 

The reality is that even with simulations, projections, and best guesses, everything remains just that—a guess.  

Managing Customer Expectations: The Best-Guess Reality 

We have customers all the time requesting hard deadlines and budget commitments. And I want to give them those guarantees—every single time. But the truth is, when we commit to dates, we always have to add the disclaimer: “This is our best estimate.” 

The world of new product development is one of constant adaptation. Our job is to mitigate the known unknowns as much as possible—but never assume we can eliminate them entirely. 

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Stay ahead in the ever-evolving world of new product development. While we can’t eliminate every unknown, we can mitigate risks and turn uncertainty into opportunity. Let’s navigate innovation together—adapt, refine, and launch with confidence.

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